McKinsey’s Holiday Shopping Forecast: Consumers Plan to Spend Less on Jewelry

By JCK News Desk | September 14, 2026

McKinsey & Co.’s ConsumerWise survey, conducted in late July and early August, found that 43% of consumers expect to spend less on jewelry during the next three months, placing the category among the weakest performers as holiday shopping begins.

Only furniture, accessories, and home decor generated lower spending intentions than jewelry. Consumers expressed greater willingness to spend on apparel, footwear, alcohol, dining out, hotel stays, cruises, and even international flights compared with jewelry.

The finding, part of a broader report on consumer sentiment by McKinsey partners Anna Pione and Christina Adams and senior partner Thomas Kilroy, is based on a survey of 4,013 U.S. consumers.

The selective shopper

Still, overall U.S. seasonal spending will top $1 trillion for the first time—a growth rate of 4.5% compared to 2025—according to Bain & Co.’s 2026 Holiday Shopping Outlook. McKinsey’s report corroborates these numbers, finding 47% of respondents expect to spend about the same amount this holiday season as they did last year, while another 23% planning to spend more.

Thus, it seems, shoppers are still shopping. But they are becoming more selective about where their dollars go. Understandably so, as the price of gas continues to infiltrate the price of everything and overall inflation continues to weigh on consumer decision-making.

How can jewelry retailers respond?

Jewelry retailers may be left fighting for a share of consumers’ holiday budget this year. But both McKinsey and Bain offer a few bright spots on the holiday horizon and, perhaps more importantly, winning strategies for the season.

• Go for Gen Z: McKinsey notes that Gen Z (ages 14–29), “stood out for comparatively greater planned spending on beauty and personal care, jewelry and accessories, footwear, and entertainment at home” relative to other generations—suggesting jewelry may hold up better with younger buyers.

• Lead with value: Today’s consumers are focused on value as they consider discretionary purchases. Bain advises retailers to “emphasize what can’t be cross-shopped.” Think exclusive partner products, in-house specialty items, unique gift bundles. For holiday marketing ideas, review JCK’s “4 Tips to Get You Ready for the 2026 Holiday Season.”

• Get ready early: With McKinsey reporting that 45% of consumers expect to start their holiday shopping by the end of October and Bain noting that more than 90% of shoppers plan to shop “Black Friday, Cyber Monday, or another major sales event,” retailers can’t start the season too early.

• Make friends with AI: According to McKinsey, nearly half (46%) of consumers said they would definitely or probably use AI tools for holiday shopping this year, mainly to compare products and prices, find deals, and generate gift ideas—a trend that makes accurate, consistent online pricing and product listings increasingly important for jewelry retailers.

The JCK News Desk uses AI to help research and produce the first draft of articles. This story was then reviewed by staff writers Libby Rutkey and David Blomquist.

(Top: Getty Images)