NRF Predicts Holiday Sales Will Rise Despite Economic Uncertainty

By Karen Dybis | November 06, 2025

The impact of tariffs on prices, the federal government shutdown, and a soft labor market may have consumers feeling queasy this holiday season, but the National Retail Federation (NRF) still predicts record spending in November and December.

“This is the first time that holiday sales—those 60 days—are expected to surpass $1 trillion in spending,” said NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay on the trade group’s annual holiday media call on Thursday. “We do think it will be another record level of sales.”

Holiday-season retail sales are predicted to rise between 3.7% and 4.2% over last year, just short of 2024’s 4.3% increase, Shay said. Spending should total $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion, the NRF estimates.

Consumers are concerned about inflation and the effect of President Trump’s tariffs, so they are price-sensitive and trading down on some purchases, Shay said on the call. But, he added, they still want to celebrate and shop for gifts.

“Spending on holidays—in particular, spending on loved ones, family, and friends—is a category of spending that has a moat around it,” said Shay. “This is a trend we’ve seen through the pandemic, [and] holidays take on outsized importance for households as an opportunity for celebration.”

Promotions and discounts will get consumers into stores, though they may find fewer employees on the retail floor to assist them, Shay told reporters.

“Based on our estimates, retailers will hire between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers. That may the lowest level in 15 years, which we think does reflect a softening and slowing labor market,” he said. “We are confident retailers will be able to meet consumers with the prices, the goods, and the savings they’re looking for this holiday season.”

In 2024, there were 442,000 seasonal hires. Because of the tariff situation, retailers will be closely monitoring spending patterns and waiting to make staff additions should demand strengthen throughout the holiday season, the NRF said.

Separate from the NRF sales forecast, its 2025 holiday survey—conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics—found that consumers plan to spend $890.49 on average this year on holiday gifts, food, decorations, and other seasonal items. That is the second highest amount in the survey’s 23-year history.

NRF’s holiday sales forecast excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants to focus on core retail. Calculations are based on economic modeling using key indicators such as consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation, and previous monthly retail sales releases.

(Photo: Getty Images)