Here’s What Analysts Say Might Happen to Gold Prices in 2026

By Karen Dybis | March 26, 2026

The price of gold has started to stabilize after fluctuating wildly during the first three months of 2026 and is likely to resume its climb, according to metals experts.

Following 2025’s record-breaking 65% return for gold, optimistic predictions of the metal’s price hitting $6,000 have quieted since the U.S. went to war with Iran. On Monday, the spot price of gold dropped to $4,278, its lowest price of the year. It had reached an all-time high of $5,594.82 on Jan. 29.

But such swings have occurred in the past, and David N. Meger, the Chicago-based director of metals trading for High Ridge Futures, says he feels confident gold will rebound nicely.

“Many times, before gold steps up and regains its footing, it goes through a long liquidation or pullback phase. That is what we have just experienced,” says Meger, who is also manager of Brinkman Global Metals.

Other gold watchers agree. On Tuesday, Pictet Wealth Management’s investment manager Alejandro Bondavalli wrote in an investor note shared with JCK, “Gold continues to offer a compelling proposition for investors.”

In times of a slowing U.S. economy and higher inflation, gold typically has a reputation as a “safe haven,” though the recent dramatic rises and falls have caused some worry among investors—and jewelers.

Meger says increasing energy prices put Federal Reserve watchers in a foul mood—they believe the Fed will be less likely to reduce interest rates, and gold struggles in that environment.

“The recent sell-off has been a momentum-driven long liquidation driven largely by expectations of rising interest rates,” he says. “Gold, despite its reputation as an inflation hedge and safe haven, has struggled to benefit from the ‘safe haven’ demand in this higher interest rate environment.”

A slower U.S. economy and lower GDP forecasts will make the Fed more dovish, according to Meger. That may make the Fed more willing to drop interest rates, and lower interest rates should be good for gold.

“I believe that the U.S. economy could be headed to an extended period of slower growth and elevated inflationary levels. That environment is positive for gold in the longer run,” Meger says.

In a report published Wednesday, ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said gold will remain “highly sensitive” to the Fed’s policy decisions, currency moves, and geopolitical developments.

“Risks remain elevated as Iran retains control over the Strait of Hormuz and Israel continues operations against Iranian assets. Regional tensions were further underscored by the U.S. decision to deploy an additional 2,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division,” they wrote.

At least one March forecast still shows gold heading toward $6,000: Frank Nikolic, CRU Group’s North American vice president, last week told Kitco News, “We do see prices going up next year, even peaking…and then starting to stabilize just shy of $6,000.”

Gold was trading around $4,450 on Thursday.

(Top: Getty Images)